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Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the other's positions."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."